J-curve Definition


political science

The curve’s inclination is controlled by the profits and how rapidly these gains travel back to the investors. Sweep that mandates the fund to pay down its debt with some or all of the excess cash flow generated. Dramatic gain – The phase where the curve surpasses the original investment quantity and enters the stage of absolute returns. Then, as time goes on, export quantities begin to skyrocket due to their more appealing prices to overseas purchasers. It predicts that a nation will, in the end, move to a trade surplus after its money decreases in worth.


J- curve in private equity refers to the propensity of private equity funds to report negative returns in the early years of their existence and then to report rising returns in subsequent years as the assets they hold mature. J-curve in private equity refers to the propensity of private equity funds to report negative returns in the early years of their existence and then to report rising returns in subsequent years as the assets they hold mature. J-curve theory is based on the foundation that the first thing that changes as a result of a currency devaluation is microeconomic shifts.

The supply-side theory, or supply-side economics, holds that economic growth is stimulated through fiscal policies designed to increase the supply of goods and services. Japan’s government made major purchases of its currency to help get out of a deflationary state. The country’s trade deficit swelled to a record 1.3 trillion yen (US$12.7 billion) on energy imports and a weaker yen. Over the long haul, large numbers of foreign consumers may bump up their purchases of products that come into their country from the nation with the devalued currency. These products now become cheaper relative to domestically-produced products.

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The curve shows a sudden fall in the short run and then gradually starts recovering. Soon it reaches the breakeven point, after which it outperforms to reach a new high. Shortly thereafter, the sales volume of the nation’s exports begins to rise steadily, thanks to their relatively cheap prices. Full BioRobert Kelly is managing director of XTS Energy LLC, and has more than three decades of experience as a business executive.

  • Broadly speaking, any phenomenon that shows an initial paradoxical response to a change followed by a strong response in the expected direction can display a letter J shape when charted as a line graph, and thus be referred to as a J Curve.
  • Because the initial loss in his money would be followed by a gain that is much higher than the minimum point on the J curve.
  • Businesses use J-curve data to determine the positive or negative effects of a time trail (pertaining to a nation’s economic policy).
  • If a currency appreciates – increases in value – the graph is usually an inverted J-curve.

It won’t give you a good estimate for exact token prices, but it has use as as a general roadmap for a token’s development. Tocqueville believed that overwhelming oppression only leads to rebellion when there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. Davies tried to integrate insights from both perspectives, hypothesizing that revolutions would be most likely to occur when a period of improvement is followed by a sharp worsening of circumstances.

It may be that there is a drammatic rise in population that has an impact but that doesn’t mean that there was a recent acceleration of the growth rate. The graphical representations exploit the weakness in arithmetic curves to represent a range of values, i.e. they are biased toward the highest value and don’t show the changes in the smaller, historical values. According to relative deprivation theory, frustrated expectations help overcome the collection action problem, which in this case has the potential to breed revolt. Prof. Davies argued that revolutions are a subjective response to a sudden change of fortunes after a long period of economic expansion – the situation is known as relative deprivation. Then, as quantities adjust, there is an increase in imports as exports remain static, and the trade deficit shrinks or reverses into a surplus forming a “J” shape.

Likewise, if there is a currency revaluation or appreciation the same reasoning may be applied and will lead to an inverted J curve. J Curves demonstrate how private equity funds historically usher in negative returns in their initial post-launch years but then start witnessing gains after they find their footing. Private equity funds may take early losses because investment costs and management fees initially absorb money.

The J-Curve in Private Equity may not offer certain products, features and/or services on the App in certain jurisdictions due to potential or actual regulatory restrictions. The purpose of this website is solely to display information regarding the products and services available on the App. The discount rate has significant impact on the discounted utility, yet no sound methodology for calculating the discount rate is provided. Collective action, it seems, is extremely rare and most likely involves the dynamic interplay of a complicated set of social, psychological, and political variables.

  • As the crypto assets progress through time, the enthusiasm may wane, weighing on the DEUV.
  • The rate of return is often lower in the early years of a funds existence because expenses are higher, poor investments are written off and profitable investments not yet matured.
  • At the same time U.S. goods will appear relatively cheaper to foreign residents, causing an increase in demand for U.S. exports.

Buyers in the United States see Indonesian products as more attractive than local products, prompting them to increase demand. Japan provides a real world example of how the J curve applies to economics. When a nation’s currency appreciates, the J Curve will naturally become inverted as a consequence of this development. Because the initial loss in his money would be followed by a gain that is much higher than the minimum point on the J curve. Japan provides a real-world example of how the J curve applies to economics. Then, as time goes on, export volumes begin to climb rapidly, and the reason for this is due to their pricing becoming more appealing to purchasers from other countries.

A devalued means imports are more expensive, and on the assumption that the volumes of imports and exports change little at first, this causes a fall in the current account . After some time, though, the volume of exports starts to rise because of their lower price to foreign buyers, and domestic consumers buy fewer imports, which have become more expensive for them. Eventually the trade balance moves to a smaller deficit or larger surplus compared to what it was before the devaluation.


Any opinions or recommendations expressed are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions or recommendations of Russell Investments, which is not responsible for any inaccuracies or errors. The increase in human population or other activity is often described as a extreme exponential curve. These are described as a “J” or “hockey stick” to emphasize a flat portion followed by a drammatic rise. Comparable sales valuation, which is comparing a private company to a similar company in the same sector which sold during that quarter.

For example, there was an eight-year gap between Facebook’s first Series Seed in 2004 and its IPO in 2012. Startup failures and the time required for companies to build success are two big variables that impact the shape of the J curve. The selection of companies to include in your portfolio is another obvious factor – the better the choice of who to invest in, the better are your chances of receiving a return from those companies. If it takes longer to generate returns, the shape of the J curve will be flatter and potentially deeper . Similarly, if cash flows are disrupted or greatly increased, for example a large client is won or lost, a similar affect can take place to the J-Curve.

currency depreciation

This combination of deploying capital faster and averaging down on fees is an efficient way to reduce both the length and depth of the J-curve. When investors commit to primary funds, they don’t know in advance what investments the GP will make. In contrast, secondary funds invest in existing commitments and are able to conduct due diligence on these assets prior to investing. With this greater transparency into the underlying assets comes greater visibility into potential future performance, including near-term exits, pending asset write-ups and positive inflection points.

A chart is said to have a J Curve shape if the line displayed on the chart begins at a lower position than the starting point and progressively climbs to a point where it is higher than the starting point. A J curve is a visual depiction of a situation in which a measured factor decreases sharply over time before stabilizing and then improving quickly. The Structured Query Language comprises several different data types that allow it to store different types of information… The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. That means an initial decline in performance followed, at least theoretically, by a steep improvement in performance. The J-curve is a visual representation of the plain fact that sometimes things will get worse before they get better.

A nation’s net exports are the value of its total exports minus the value of its total imports. The term J-curve is used to describe the typical trajectory of investments made by a private equity firm. It shows a rapid, exponential growth in the species’ population, that stops…

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This approach recognizes that there will be winners and losers, and it means your investments are not overly dependent on one sector or one company. This spreads your risk, balances your portfolio, and increases your chances of building steady and sustainable future returns. Some critics have argued that relative deprivation focuses primarily on the conditions that immediately precede a social movement or a revolt.

The J-curve depicts a phenomenon in which dramatic gains of a company or an economy follow a loss. J Curve definition refers to a line or a chart that initially starts decreasing, and after some point, there is a massive turn which leads to huge gains. The J curve line progresses to a point where it is higher than the point where it started from.


Where the curve falls at the beginning and in the long run rises to a point higher than the beginning stage, demonstrating the letter J. In economics this is a condition when in start country’s trade balance is negative. Due to this situation, low price export attracts other countries trading partners.

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Following a sharp drop in the yen value, the country’s trade balance declined, mostly because it took some time for the number of exports and imports to adjust to price signals. These curves show how private equity firms often generate negative returns in the first few years following their establishment but start to see benefits as they mature. The lag between depreciation and reaction on the curve is mainly because the overall value of imports is likely to rise even after a country’s currency depreciates.

As one moves right along the x-axis, it is evident that stability decreases, creating a dip in the, before beginning to pick up again as a state’s “openness” increases. First, the additional cash will pay down the debts; then, any extra cash will go to equity investors. Private equity firms typically wait until they’ve found lucrative assets before exerting their control of their investors’ money. The influence of higher price elasticity, in the long run, is one of the most important variables to consider while comprehending the curve.

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